Do we overestimate progress in the short-term?

And underestimate progress in the long-term?

I liked this take on autonomous vehicles and how technology progresses. John Carmack believes we will have self-driving cars by 2030. In general he says we overestimate the potential of technology in the short-term and underestimate it in the long-term. The first half of this sounds right in relation to self-driving technology; it will be interesting to see if the second part hold up.